Strategic Communication Hybrid Threats

Shifting Alliances in West Africa – Measuring Russian engagement to support counter-FIMI strategies

European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) Reports, articles, briefs Public 2025

This brief analyses data on the use of foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI) by Russia to build public support for their military involvement and political leadership in West Africa. Russian FIMI has been particularly effective in the Sahel region, and combatting these threats it is crucial for the sustainability of CSDP in the region.

In Russia's engagement with the Sahel states of West Africa, a pattern has emerged of a massive surge of pro-Russian media precipitating the entry of its military forces, knows as the Africa Corps (formerly the Wagner Group). For instance, in the 2 months before Wagner's arrival in Mali in 2021, local pro-Russian messaging surged by 1,576%. Over the longer term, between 2020 and 2023, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger saw dramatic increases in pro-Russian media—by 703%, 940%, and 947% respectively.

This surge in Russian media engagement has correlated directly with an increase in public support for Russia. Survey data from 2019 to 2023 shows a rise in pro-Russia sentiment from 64% to 89% in Mali and from 55% to 81% in Burkina Faso. Narratives tap into anti-colonial sentiment towards European, and particularly French, involvement and promote Russian leadership as beneficial for pan-Africanist causes. To combat this, counter-FIMI activities are urgently needed in the region to rebuild favourable public opinion by highlighting shared successes between local states and the EU. This is especially relevant for EUCAP Sahel Mali, the only remaining civilian CSDP mission in the Sahel after the mission in Niger was closed by the junta in 2023.

Reference: Terren, L., Van Aelst, P. & Van Damme, T. (2025). Shifting Alliances in West Africa – Measuring Russian engagement to support counter-FIMI strategies. European Union Institution for Security Studies.

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