Resilience and Future Literacy for Improved Crisis Management

Reports, articles, briefs Public Academic Journals 2025

This report developed by the Resilience League provides a roadmap of theory and practice for the reintegration of Ukrainian territory following the end of Russian occupation, with a focus on hybrid threats and societal resilience.

The authors first define future literacy by breaking it down into four key skills. First, long-term strategic planning, which relies on the ability to account for the public's subjective beliefs, to work with others' and one's own identity, overcome distrust between society and the state, and collectively form new cultures of coexistence and cooperation. Second comes foresight, via scenario modelling and planning. Third, ontology, which refers to the formation of one's own fundamental perceptions of reality. And finally, building resilience through risk assessment and analysis.

These concepts are then brought to the topic of reintegrating the temporarily occupied territories (TOTs) of Ukraine, including Crimea. It is crucial that for Ukraine's reintegration strategy to address the risks to societal resilience caused by the Russian occupation. Such risks include low social trust between the population and Ukrainian authorities, cultural tensions, language barriers, a stark lack of constructive state capacity, and the lasting effects of Russian disinformation. These interlocking risks to social cohesion, effective government, and the information environment will require Ukraine to rebuild trust and mutual understanding with the populations of TOTs to support the resilience of the process.

From this, the authors lay out principles for crisis management and communications for the deoccupation process. Four key principles are ensuring security, providing basic services, supporting legitimate institutions, and facilitating inclusive dialogue. And the process of crisis management is split into three consecutive phases: stabilisation and humanitarian response, restoring institutions and strengthening trust, and democratic development and peacebuilding. Strategic communication is important throughout the process. They advise taking care to find blind spots and gaps in data rather than just focusing on positive stories, put extra effort into verifying published information, and to reflect on personal associations and beliefs. Complete cognitive deoccupation of the TOTs will be a long-term project involving the culture of memory, preservation of cultural heritage, and engagement with Ukrainian youth.

This report highlights several opportunities where Civilian CSDP could play a strong role supporting Ukrainian institutions as they prepare for reintegration of the TOTs via building state capacity and strategic communications.

Reference: Vartovnyk, I. & Teperik, D. (2025). Resilience and Future Literacy for Improved Crisis Management. Analytical Review.